A Tornado Outbreak is Possible on Monday in Oklahoma & Kansas
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Thunderstorms may form tomorrow afternoon and evening across Oklahoma in a very favorable environment for significant severe weather.
At the mid-levels an intensifying jet streak impulse ejecting around the base of a broad, negatively tilted trough will emerge into the warm sector near peak heating. Deep layer shear vectors across Oklahoma will be oriented orthogonally to the sharp surface dry line, supporting a discrete supercell storm modes. 05.00Z soundings reveal a deep moist layer along the Gulf Coast (moist layer to 700mb at CRP!) and steep lapse rates across the desert southwest, sampled at TUS and EPZ. The steep lapse rates arewell-positioned to overspread the rich moisture tomorrow afternoon as an EML, resulting in strong instability by 21Z. Any remaining CINH should weaken amidst gradual height falls.
The approaching jet streak will induce a low-level mass response tomorrow afternoon, yielding impressive veering wind profiles and clockwise-curving low-level hodographs. No wind profiles weaknesses are noted on current model solutions. 00Z CAM guidance indicates severe storms should develop at least as far south as Watonga, and perhaps as far south as Lawton.
Any storm that develops tomorrow will move quickly east into an environment increasingly favorable for dangerous severe weather (including strong tornadoes) into the early overnight hours.
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More Forecasts
A Tornado Outbreak is Possible on Monday in Oklahoma & Kansas
As of this evening, a broad corridor of conditional significant severe weather potential appears likely to evolve across Kansas, Oklahoma, and perhaps extreme northern Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. If storms are able to form along the dry line between 3pm and 8pm, the ambient environment will be supportive of strong tornadoes, giant hail, and eventually upscale growth with an attendant damaging wind threat.
People in areas at risk for severe weather should monitor trusted sources tomorrow for additional information.
Synoptic Storm Expected Early Next Week (12-18-23)
Synopsis: A large low pressure system will bring active weather to much of the eastern seaboard, with a focus in New England, late this weekend into early next week. As the low moves northward from its current position in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a favorable upper-level pattern evolution should allow the system to deepen rapidly to near 980mb at 40°N. Rapid pressure falls should result in a large mass response/impressive low-level jet evolution, increasing the risk for damaging wind gusts and drawing a large plume of moisture northward. Near the surface low, a 10-18 hour period of steady to heavy rain can be expected, with a shorter window of potentially damaging winds along the NewEngland coast during the day on Monday.
Severe Storms in New England Thursday (7/27)
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern New Hampshire, the Hudson Valley, and perhaps northeast Pennsylvania, and move southeast with time through a favorable environment. Damaging winds, flash flooding, and tornadoes will all be possible with the most intense storms. A particularly favorable environment for tornadoes could evolve across northern MA/southern NH during the afternoon, where strong low-level shear will be co-located with substantial instability.
Strong Storms & Flooding Possible Friday (7-14)
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In a deeply moist and unstable airmass, subtle disturbances aloft should trigger waves of thunderstorms across New England and New York on Friday. A focused corridor of severe thunderstorm potential could emerge across portions of downstate NY and southern New England.