Severe Storms in New England Thursday (7/27)
A compact upper level disturbance and attendant surface low will trigger a notable mass response across southern New England during the morning hours on Thursday. Extremely moist air (Td > 75°F) will be drawn northward and should destabilize as surface temperatures rise through the 80s, with afternoon MLCAPE values > 2000j/kg. Despite meager mid-level lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles on the whole appear favorable for convection this afternoon.
As of 14Z, extensive cloudiness and a few showers at the leading edge of the deeper moisture are present, primarily north of Route 2 in MA – this could dampen instability somewhat with northern extent. However, extremely rich moisture is apparent near the south coast/Long Island, and will be rapidly advected northward as the low level jet moves in from the west this afternoon, aiding in destabilization even with limited sun.
Modeled wind profiles are impressive. A 40-50kt low level jet and the proximate position of the surface low yields enlarged, clockwise turning low level hodographs. Though the 500mb speed max will be moving offshore at peak heating, enough mid level flow should remain to keep the wind profile well organized. One potentially limiting factor for tornado potential could be the orientation of the initiating boundary to the shear vectors (more parallel than perpendicular), but this doesn't completely mitigate the risk given the anomalous and impressive low level shear in place today.
As depicted in the headline graphic, it seems plausible that a more focused corridor of tornado potential could evolve along the northern fringe of the deepest instability where low level shear is more pronounced. Close proximity to the surface low could help keep low level winds more southerly, increasing hodograph curvature and effective helicity. The best chance for this co-location of ingredients appears to be across central Massachusetts and far southern New Hampshire.
More Forecasts
A Tornado Outbreak is Possible on Monday in Oklahoma & Kansas
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As of this evening, a broad corridor of conditional significant severe weather potential appears likely to evolve across Kansas, Oklahoma, and perhaps extreme northern Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. If storms are able to form along the dry line between 3pm and 8pm, the ambient environment will be supportive of strong tornadoes, giant hail, and eventually upscale growth with an attendant damaging wind threat.
People in areas at risk for severe weather should monitor trusted sources tomorrow for additional information.
Synoptic Storm Expected Early Next Week (12-18-23)
Synopsis: A large low pressure system will bring active weather to much of the eastern seaboard, with a focus in New England, late this weekend into early next week. As the low moves northward from its current position in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a favorable upper-level pattern evolution should allow the system to deepen rapidly to near 980mb at 40°N. Rapid pressure falls should result in a large mass response/impressive low-level jet evolution, increasing the risk for damaging wind gusts and drawing a large plume of moisture northward. Near the surface low, a 10-18 hour period of steady to heavy rain can be expected, with a shorter window of potentially damaging winds along the NewEngland coast during the day on Monday.
Severe Storms in New England Thursday (7/27)
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern New Hampshire, the Hudson Valley, and perhaps northeast Pennsylvania, and move southeast with time through a favorable environment. Damaging winds, flash flooding, and tornadoes will all be possible with the most intense storms. A particularly favorable environment for tornadoes could evolve across northern MA/southern NH during the afternoon, where strong low-level shear will be co-located with substantial instability.
Strong Storms & Flooding Possible Friday (7-14)
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In a deeply moist and unstable airmass, subtle disturbances aloft should trigger waves of thunderstorms across New England and New York on Friday. A focused corridor of severe thunderstorm potential could emerge across portions of downstate NY and southern New England.