As of this evening, a broad corridor of conditional significant severe weather potential appears likely to evolve across Kansas, Oklahoma, and perhaps extreme northern Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening.  If storms are able to form along the dry line between 3pm and 8pm, the ambient environment will be supportive of strong tornadoes, giant hail, and eventually upscale growth with an attendant damaging wind threat.  

People in areas at risk for severe weather should monitor trusted sources tomorrow for additional information.

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Synopsis: A large low pressure system will bring active weather to much of the eastern seaboard, with a focus in New England, late this weekend into early next week. As the low moves northward from its current position in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a favorable upper-level pattern evolution should allow the system to deepen rapidly to near 980mb at 40°N. Rapid pressure falls should result in a large mass response/impressive low-level jet evolution, increasing the risk for damaging wind gusts and drawing a large plume of moisture northward. Near the surface low, a 10-18 hour period of steady to heavy rain can be expected, with a shorter window of potentially damaging winds along the NewEngland coast during the day on Monday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern New Hampshire, the Hudson Valley, and perhaps northeast Pennsylvania, and move southeast with time through a favorable environment.  Damaging winds, flash flooding, and tornadoes will all be possible with the most intense storms.  A particularly favorable environment for tornadoes could evolve across northern MA/southern NH during the afternoon, where strong low-level shear will be co-located with substantial instability.

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In a deeply moist and unstable airmass, subtle disturbances aloft should trigger waves of thunderstorms across New England and New York on Friday.  A focused corridor of severe thunderstorm potential could emerge across portions of downstate NY and southern New England.

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