Strong Storms & Flooding Possible Friday (7-14)
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Conditions favorable for severe storms and flash flooding appear likely to develop in New England on Friday (7-14).
As a deeply moist low level airmass streams into southern New England on Friday morning, subtle mid-level shortwaves embedded in a belt of 30-40kt westerlies will approach from PA/NY. These shortwaves may be convectively influenced, making precise predictions a bit trickier, but it seems a good bet that at least a couple initiating disturbances should be present in the flow aloft. With deep moisture in place, diurnal heating will result in relatively large instability across a broad region of NY, PA, and southern/central New England once modified outflow from ongoing thunderstorms retreats north as a pseudo-warm front during the morning.
Along the northern fringe of the instability, probably from near Scranton, northeast to the Worcester Hills, and from there into York Co., ME, a diffuse warm front will be in place by late morning. As this boundary retreats north/mixes out, it may serve as one zone of initiation for thunderstorms. As mentioned previously, subtle shortwaves in the flow aloft could also result in more random initiation of surface-based convection in the warm sector, and of elevated convection north of the boundary.
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is very depressed in areas where recent rains have been most prolific – most notably across VT and western NH. Even progressive thunderstorms could result in localized flash flooding in these areas given the very moist atmosphere and saturated soils. There is reason to be concerned about training thunderstorms given the parallel orientation of the likely initiating boundary and the deep layer flow. It's not entirely clear how the convective evolution will play out, but there are scenarios where a more substantial flash flood thread could emerge, and people in vulnerable areas should be alert to this potential.
More Forecasts
A Tornado Outbreak is Possible on Monday in Oklahoma & Kansas
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As of this evening, a broad corridor of conditional significant severe weather potential appears likely to evolve across Kansas, Oklahoma, and perhaps extreme northern Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. If storms are able to form along the dry line between 3pm and 8pm, the ambient environment will be supportive of strong tornadoes, giant hail, and eventually upscale growth with an attendant damaging wind threat.
People in areas at risk for severe weather should monitor trusted sources tomorrow for additional information.
Synoptic Storm Expected Early Next Week (12-18-23)
Synopsis: A large low pressure system will bring active weather to much of the eastern seaboard, with a focus in New England, late this weekend into early next week. As the low moves northward from its current position in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a favorable upper-level pattern evolution should allow the system to deepen rapidly to near 980mb at 40°N. Rapid pressure falls should result in a large mass response/impressive low-level jet evolution, increasing the risk for damaging wind gusts and drawing a large plume of moisture northward. Near the surface low, a 10-18 hour period of steady to heavy rain can be expected, with a shorter window of potentially damaging winds along the NewEngland coast during the day on Monday.
Severe Storms in New England Thursday (7/27)
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern New Hampshire, the Hudson Valley, and perhaps northeast Pennsylvania, and move southeast with time through a favorable environment. Damaging winds, flash flooding, and tornadoes will all be possible with the most intense storms. A particularly favorable environment for tornadoes could evolve across northern MA/southern NH during the afternoon, where strong low-level shear will be co-located with substantial instability.
Strong Storms & Flooding Possible Friday (7-14)
In a deeply moist and unstable airmass, subtle disturbances aloft should trigger waves of thunderstorms across New England and New York on Friday. A focused corridor of severe thunderstorm potential could emerge across portions of downstate NY and southern New England.